World Baseball Classic: By history, Cuban and Japan should get the tickets

None of the teams that played the finals in the WBC 2009, Cuba and Japan, will have their best national teams in this 4^th edition.

But facing Australia and China —the other two teams in WBC Pool B— should not suppose any problem to advance. But let’s take a deep look to the four baseball teams and see some interesting data.

HIGHLIGHTS:

Which teams are supposed to move forward? My guest: Japan and Cuba, in that order. In such a case, the game Cuba-Australia will be paramount as Japan would advance unbeaten.

It is true: No MLB aces for Japan this time. It means no Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, Kenta Maeda, Hisashi Iwakuma, or Koji Uehara. Nonetheless, the Japanese staff has several extraordinary pitchers. Its offense is balanced with pretty good contact hitters, speedy runners, and very strong defensively.

Outfielder Norichika Aoki is the face of the team because of his performance in the Seattle Mariners in 2016. His offensive stats did not excel: 283/349/388 with 24 doubles. Aoki’s average in two previous WBC is 310 (13-42) and was signed by the Houston Astros this season.

Japan manager Hiroki Kokubo announced his starting line-up in the game against Cuba and he mixed RHH (Right-Handed Hitters) with LHH (Left-Handed Hitters). Aoki will bat seventh.

Tetsuto Yamada, 2B, will bat third in the order. Fans hope he will perform similar to former outfielder star Ichiro Susuki.

Kokubo’s players will also depend on the bats of Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (24) and Sho Nakata (27) who managed to hit 69 homers and batted-in 220 runs in the 2016 season.

With the burden of history over its shoulders, Cuba will face a tournament in disadvantage. Much of its superstar players have departed to the US to play in the MLB.

What is the formula for a unified Cuban team? There is no answer yet. Both key parts, Cuba and MLB, disagree. Therefore, we must be patient and support our team, which is going to play at its best level, even though Cuba lost in the process considerable power hitters and strong arms. Some data illustrates facts: Cuba (13-7, second in win totals in three previous editions) is the sole team to hit 300+ (310) and leads extra-base hits (69), homers (30), and slugging (507).

Frederich Cepeda (leader in HR with 6, 8 doubles, 31 hits, 23 RBIs, and 17 runs scored) and Alfredo Despaigne (4 HR, 10 RBIs, 686 SLU) are compelled to be the leaders in Cuba’ offense. This time, the team will have 12 rookie hitters that include prospect Yoelkys Cespedes (19) and the return of C Yosvany Alarcon.

Regarding the pitching staff, manager Carlos Marti already announced ace Lazaro Blanco to start against Australia. Perhaps this game will decide the qualification to the next round. Vladimir Garcia, Vladimir Banos, or Yovani Torres may well be the other starters.

Any surprises?: The way I see it, three can be the surprises that may emerge. First, Cuba is eliminated after suffering two costly loses (Australia and Japan). Second, China wins one game. And third, Japan is eliminated —something I see unlikely.

What is the key element in Pool B? The pitching.

Japan will depend highly on Tomoyuki Sugano (9-6, 2.01 ERA, 9.3 SO/9) and Ayumu Ishikawa (14-5, excellent command 1.2 BB/9).

Having into account previous performances, Cuban ace Lazaro Blanco merits close attention. He boasts excellent command, nerve, and patience.

Aussies will count on Peter Moylan, 38. He has under his belt 10 seasons in the MLB with 381 games as reliever.

Moylan’s fastball touches the 91 mph, his sinker goes to the 89 mph, and the slider 77 mph. He has 24-9, 2.91 ERA with a total of three teams (Atlanta 2006-2012, 2015), Dodgers (2013) and Kansas City Royals in 2016.

China has one ace and he is LHP Bruce Chen. Chen saw actions in 17 seasons at the MLB level. One quality start of him would be awesome for China.

Translated by Sergio A. Paneque Diaz / Cubasi Translation Staff