Cuba Faces Major Demographic Challenges, Expert Affirms

The official presentation of the State of World Population Report, prepared by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), was held this Monday at a press conference at the UN House in Havana.

According to experts, the report highlights serious global issues regarding disparities in fertility rates across 14 countries, gender gaps in parenting and caregiving responsibilities, the lack of family planning services, and limited access to sexual and reproductive education. These challenges manifest differently depending on a country’s level of economic and social development.

In Cuba’s case, Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga, Deputy Head of the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), stated that the country follows global trends of declining fertility rates, remaining below the population replacement level since 1978.

He pointed out that economic factors are not the sole explanation for this demographic trend. Since the 1980s, recurring themes behind people’s reluctance to have children have included professional advancement, employment conditions, personal fulfillment, and health concerns, among others.

“Cuba currently faces significant demographic challenges, including a high degree of natural population decline—meaning that more people are dying than being born. Combined with other phenomena such as emigration, this has led to a population contraction of approximately 1.4 million fewer inhabitants compared to 2020, with population declines across all municipalities except Antilla, in the province of Holguín,” Alfonso Fraga noted.

Matilde Molina Cintra, Deputy Director of the Center for Demographic Studies at the University of Havana (CEDEM), referenced data from the 2022 National Fertility Survey, which involved more than 1,200 Cuban families.

According to the survey, over 70% of women between the ages of 15 and 45 had children, revealing a marked gender gap in this age group. Some 36% of the women had only one child, and only 29% had fewer children than they would have liked—figures that have declined compared to a similar 2009 study, indicating a diminished reproductive ideal.

Regarding the reasons cited for not having children, Molina Cintra highlighted economic circumstances, professional aspirations, job conditions, personal fulfillment, and health issues. She noted a shift in priorities compared to 2009, when professional advancement was the most commonly cited reason.

She also warned of a disconnect in the case of teenage pregnancy. Despite Cuba’s average fertility rate being just 1.29 children per woman—low by regional standards—the adolescent fertility rate remains high, comparable to other countries in the region.

“Although the Family Code includes provisions addressing early marriage, there is still a level of permissiveness among families regarding adolescent sexual relationships and consensual unions with adults. These often lead to unwanted pregnancies and related issues such as school dropout, abuse, and violence—problems that should be better prevented through policies aimed at advancing women and promoting comprehensive sexual education,” she stressed.

Marisol Alfonso de Armas, Head of the UNFPA Office in Cuba, explained that, globally, the main barriers to fertility continue to revolve around economic precarity, housing stability, access to food, strained caregiving services, pension systems, and healthcare and contraceptive access.

“These are compounded by uncertainties about the future—climate change, environmental risks, pandemics, forced migration, and wars—all of which lead more and more people, particularly in developed countries, to choose not to have children. This contributes to the widening gap between actual and desired fertility,” she added.

Also attending the launch were Francisco Pichón, UN Resident Coordinator in Cuba; Keyla Estévez, Director of the Center for Youth Studies; and Norma Goicochea Estenoz, President of the Cuban Association for the United Nations.