With more than one hundred thousand police officers and armed forces taking care of public order, the presidential elections were held this Sunday in Ecuador, where with 89.28% of the valid processed ballots, the president and candidate for re-election Daniel Noboa reached 44.37% of the votes, while the opposition Luisa González, of the Correaist Citizen Revolution obtained 43.86%, less than 50% plus one, so they will have to go to a second round on Sunday, April 13.

To win in the first round, it was necessary to obtain half plus one of the votes the valid candidates must achieve at least 40% and a minimum advantage of 10% points over the second candidate.

Curiously, Noboa and Luisa González also faced each other in the second round in 2023, in elections brought forward by the resignation of the then president, Guillermo Lasso, who invoked the so-called sudden death remedy to dissolve Congress and avoid a trial for corruption and call for new elections.

According to the results offered, in third place was Leónidas Iza, the candidate of the indigenous movement Pachakutik, with 5.16%; and in fourth place Andrea González, the Partido Sociedad Patriótica (PSP), with 2.70%. The remaining 12 presidential candidates do not reach 1% of the votes.

Even the blank and spoiled votes, added together, have a higher percentage than that achieved by any of these 14 candidates, reaching 8.89%.

More than 13.7 million Ecuadorians were called to the polls this Sunday to elect their authorities for the period 2025-2029, including, in addition to the Presidency and Vice Presidency, the 151 members of the National Assembly (Parliament) and five representatives for the Andean Parliament.

The elections in Ecuador took place normally and with a participation of 83.38%, although some candidates such as González made accusations against the National Electoral Council (CNE) for having favored Noboa by allowing him to campaign without fully removing himself from the office of president, as indicated by national regulations.

It was also reported that the armed forces were carrying out a parallel count, in order to favor the multimillionaire, and prevent the victory of the candidate of Correísmo.

HISTORIC VOTING

"We are going stronger, after this great victory, we are going to continue to rise in the polls," she said, after learning about her figures in the voting.

"We have won (...) We have broken the historic voting of the Citizen Revolution of the last 10 years; that is, we, as a political organization as well, that collects the feeling of a people that has been forgotten, we have felt that value, that affection and that hope of the people in the response at the polls," said the candidate, who called for unity.

Luisa pointed out that while "Daniel Noboa represents fear," the RC represents "hope, change," and insisted that her movement is the great winner, since it faced a presidential candidate who "used the power of the State and state assets to campaign" and "has violated all legal regulations."

In view of the second round, she called for unity, especially for those who want to "build a joint agenda" that will lead them to that "dignity" and "peace" that Ecuadorians seek.

She pointed out that the situation the country is going through, mainly in terms of insecurity, has to "mobilize everyone," and recalled that months ago the RC was one of the first movements "to go to a call for unity of the left," where they sat down with various political organizations, including some of "center" and "center-left" ideologies.

In that sense, she insisted that they will continue "seeking unity" for "the homeland" and to "transform" the lives of Ecuadorians. She pointed out that if some changes have to be made in the strategy to achieve victory, she is willing to do so.

She invited the industry and organized civil society to come together and "contribute to the homeland." "We build this together, we all bring Ecuador forward," she emphasized.

For his part, Noboa preferred silence. Although there was a call to the press to hear his statements, the hours passed and the event did not take place.

LATENT THREAT

For the Citizen Revolution, led by former President Rafael Correa (2007-2017), it will be the third attempt to return to government after the two failed efforts of 2021 and 2023, in which, however, he achieved the first majority in the National Assembly.

The data are eloquent in supporting the forecast that Ecuador will avoid the consolidation of the right and neoliberalism for the period 2025-2029. In the new year, the economy will continue to stagnate, after having depressed in 2024 to less than 1% as a result of the contraction of public spending and investment, despite the growth of tax revenues at the expense of increased tax burdens on taxpayers. The legacy of almost eight years of neoliberal rule, associated with the doctrines of the International Monetary Fund, is harsh.

The spiral of violence is reflected in a homicide rate of at least 40% per 100,000 inhabitants in 2024, one of the highest in Latin America. This phenomenon has become an argument for increasing police, military and political dependence on the United States, in the name of assistance in the fight against drug trafficking and for citizen security.

But beyond the statistical data are the consequences of the “war” strategy against drug trafficking adopted by President Daniel Noboa, in the 13 months he has been in power. This tactic, which incorporated the Armed Forces into the fight against drug trafficking gangs, leaves at the end of 2024 its most dramatic episode: the forced disappearance and death of four children and adolescents in Guayaquil at the hands of an Air Force patrol, last December.

Along with accentuating in the collective imagination the conviction the country is experiencing a state of violence and insecurity, this fact has confirmed the fears of specialists in the country and outside it about human rights violations, common to strategies of this nature.

The deteriorating situation that Ecuador is experiencing is also completed by other social data. According to the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC) of Ecuador, in June 2024, poverty at the national level was 25.5% and extreme poverty was 10.6%.

This should lead voters to look for options that propose changing the neoliberal model for another that at least prioritizes public investment and social spending to get the country out of the crisis into which it has fallen.

But this logic is countered by a strong campaign by the right, which seeks to discredit progressivism and introduce into voters the belief that this option will end up destroying the country's economy.

Translated by Amilkal Labañino / Cubasi Translation Staff