Two New Voter Surveys Foresee Silva-Rousseff Tie in 1st Round

According to a survey commissioned by the O Estado de Sao Paulo daily and Globo television and conducted by Ibope, 37 percent of those polled said they would vote for Rousseff on Oct. 5, up from 34 percent who had preferred the president in the Aug. 26 survey, and Silva, a former senator and former environment minister, moved up four points from 29 percent to 33 percent.

The other poll, conducted by Datafolha and published by the Folha de Sao Paulo daily, provided similar results, giving Rousseff 35 percent support among likely voters to Silva’s 34 percent.

In the Datafolha survey, Rousseff moved up one percentage point and the Brazilian Socialist Party candidate remained at the same level as in the firm’s most recent poll, which was conducted last Monday.

Given that none of the seven candidates are expected to receive more than 50 percent of the vote, a second round between the two top vote-getters will – in all likelihood – have to be held on Oct. 26.

When voters were asked about whom they would favor in the hypothetical second round, Silva would win the election, according to both surveys.

Ibope found that Silva would receive 46 percent of the runoff votes compared with 39 percent for Rousseff, and Datafolha put the final totals at Silva garnering 48 percent to the president’s 41 percent.

Silva, an Afro-Brazilian and a staunch Evangelical Christian, surged in the polls after entering Brazil’s presidential contest less than three weeks ago following the death in a plane crash of the PSB’s original nominee, Eduardo Campos.

She served as environment minister for part of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s 2003-2011 Workers Party government and finished third in the 2010 presidential election as leader of the Green Party.