What Does Change in Candidates Mean for US Elections?

Harris is expected to receive the Democratic Party’s nomination. But the waters are murky and it’s difficult to see ahead.

With U.S. President Joe Biden’s recent withdrawal from the 2024 elections, myriad uncertainties lie ahead in the race to the White House. The shift began last month, after critics blasted the president for what they said was his poor performance in the debate against GOP challenger Donald Trump.

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The criticism reached a boiling point, with a growing number of members from Biden’s own party calling on the president to step aside. Now, Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to receive the Democratic Party’s nomination to run for president. But the waters are murky and it’s difficult to see ahead.

“I think the switch has reset things to where they were before the debate — a very close race with a slight Trump lead,” Christopher Galdieri, a political science professor at Saint Anselm College, told Xinhua.

“We won’t really know where things are until things settle down with Harris’s running mate choice and the Democratic convention,” Galdieri said.

CHALLENGES FOR TRUMP

“The Harris nomination creates a serious problem for Republicans because they spent millions saying how bad it is to have an old president, and now their candidate is the old guy in the race,” Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Darrell West said, adding that Trump is still figuring out how to attack Harris and does not have a consistent message the way his campaign did against Biden.

Harris’s campaign has garnered US$200 million in donations in the first week of the White House campaign. The rapidly increasing donations show that “Democrats are also united,” West noted.

Prior to this week, Trump was running on the discontent people have had throughout the Biden administration. “I think that’s a weaker play now that Biden himself is no longer on the ballot,” Galdieri said.

Moreover, at 59 years old, Harris is much younger than Trump, which could go a long way with young voters, experts said.

Clay Ramsay, a researcher at the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland, noted that Harris has inherited all the money of the Biden campaign. She has also inherited experienced people and a large ground operation to get out the vote.

CHALLENGES FOR HARRIS

Harris has been the number two person in an unpopular administration. In a Gallup poll conducted between July 1-July 21 — almost entirely before he announced withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race — Biden received a 36 percent job approval rating from the American people, his lowest to date.

Galdieri said Harris could struggle being blamed for the same things voters blamed Biden for. Indeed, the last few years have seen surging prices for food, rent and the purchase of homes. Millions of migrants continue to illegally surge over the southern U.S. border — a crucial issue for Americans.

Christian Holland, an IT professional outside of Washington, said that “people see Harris as an extension of Biden” and won’t vote for her. Harris’s far left record could also prove to be an obstacle for her. She served as California attorney general and as a senator representing the blue state.

Harris was criticized by conservative media for voicing support for the “defund the police” movement in June 2020, amid the riots that terrorized residents of cities nationwide for months.

That occurred before she was vice president. Moreover, she’s been a low-profile vice president, and might not do well in terms of name recognition, experts said.

By sharp contrast, many are embracing Trump as a candidate who has shown courage under fire during an attempted assassination earlier this month. After a bullet grazed his ear, a defiant Trump stood up and yelled “Fight! Fight!” to supporters at a rally, while blood ran down his face. Images of the event have grabbed headlines worldwide, and garnered sympathy even from Trump’s enemies.

Ramsay said Harris’s most important weakness is that anything she does and says that looks “unprepared” will be seized upon. If that occurs, “she will be labeled as a lightweight, and not just by Trump’s side — much of the U.S. media won’t give her a chance either.”

In Friday’s RealClearPolitics’ average of polls, Harris trailed Trump in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and Georgia. In Wisconsin and Michigan, Trump led only by 0.7 percentage point and 1.0 point, respectively. That’s well within the margin of error. But Trump led Harris in Arizona at a hefty 6.4 percent, and in Georgia with a sizable 4.5 percent. In Pennsylvania, Trump led by 3.0 percent.