The "Green Scam": A Mantra Embraced by Trump During His First Year Back

"Green Scam" Rhetoric Takes Center Stage at UN
"If you do not get away from the green scam, your country will fail." Five times, U.S. President Donald Trump referred to climate change in terms of a scam during his speech before the United Nations General Assembly on September 23. He exhibited his pride in climate denial and called on the world's nations to reclaim their energy freedom.

The address eliminated any doubt about the U.S. president's environmental intentions. During his first year back in office, he has reveled in phrases such as "the falsely named renewables," "the false energy catastrophe," and "the brutal green energy policies."

Mocking Allies and Dismantling Commitments
Facing a silent audience, Trump mocked Europe for making "the sacrifice" of reducing its emissions by 37%, while China and other countries contributed to a global increase of 54%. "Congratulations, Europe. Good job."

The Republican leader had already set his course by signing the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on his inauguration day, which will become effective on January 27. The United States, the world's second-largest polluter, had a climate adaptation financing goal of $300 billion until 2035. Now, in 2026, its national emissions reduction commitment (NDC) will expire.

An "Energy Emergency" and Fossil Fuel Expansion
Trump also declared an energy emergency upon taking office, allowing him to boost oil and gas production in Alaska. In October, his administration approved plans to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to new drilling.

Oil was equally a determining factor in the U.S. military attack on Venezuela. After capturing and removing President Nicolás Maduro from the country, the Trump administration announced its intention to assume control over the sale of Venezuelan oil indefinitely.

Further north, in Greenland, the energy resources and rare earth minerals hidden beneath its vast icy territory are a temptation difficult for the Republican leader to resist. He wants those riches "one way or another." His first 'hard' move has been to threaten tariffs on European countries that have sent military reconnaissance missions to the island.

A Massive "Own Goal"
Analysts who warned in January 2025 about the consequences of the U.S. exit from the Paris Agreement observed with some relief that the country remained in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the key forum against global warming.

But the mirage was short-lived. On January 7, Trump signed an executive order to withdraw the U.S. from 66 organizations "contrary to national interests," including the UNFCCC. Simon Stiell, the Convention's Executive Secretary, called it "a colossal own goal" that would leave the country "less safe and less prosperous."

It would mean, he said, "less affordable energy, food, transportation, and insurance for households and businesses, as renewables remain cheaper than fossil fuels" and "the volatility of oil, coal, and gas causes more conflict, regional instability, and forced migration." The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the International Renewable Energy Agency, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature are also among the institutions the U.S. will leave.

A COP Without the U.S.
COP30 was held in November in Belém, Brazil, without the United States. However, American positions empowered other actors to defend their interests, and the summit concluded with a document that did not mention fossil fuels. A roadmap toward phasing out hydrocarbons was vetoed by oil-producing countries.

Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, the sole U.S. representative at the summit, stated that the Trump administration "is corrupted" by oil.

Market Forces as a Corrective?
The Rhodium Group economic research office estimates that in 2025, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.4% after two years of decline, though they had not yet been significantly affected by Trump's policies. "But they could have increasingly large effects in the coming years," they emphasized, citing risks such as meeting data centers' electricity demand with fossil fuels and a lack of incentives for electric vehicles.

Climate agencies hope that at least market forces will correct Trump's course, as according to the International Energy Agency, 91% of renewable projects are profitable. Stiell also highlighted this lure after the U.S. withdrawal from the UNFCCC: "The commercial opportunity in clean energy, climate resilience, and advanced electro-technology remains too big for U.S. investors and companies to ignore."