Where is the crisis in the Middle East between Iran and Israel leading? We can no longer speak of proxy wars between a state and irregular organizations, but of a scenario in which the very survival of life is at stake and which places the global order in a very dangerous game. At this point, the entire framework of the United Nations peace systems is proving inefficient in achieving both a ceasefire in Gaza and a de-escalation. Iran has a rocket system and offensive capabilities that can unbalance the foundations of what has been usual in the region until now and in fact is doing so. Israel is no longer the armed policeman with license to kill, in addition to having abused the Arab peoples, its defense system has been questioned and violated. In order to come out of this situation, the only option is to have a treaty that achieves what has so far been impossible in terms of international politics: two recognizable and sovereign states in the Levant.

But, besides Iran and Israel, the region has other important players. There’s Saudi Arabia with one of the highest military budgets on the planet and with enough financial resources to be a counterweight to Iran in the Middle East. Riyadh is also one of the largest oil exporters and an emerging power that can form part of the tandem of multilateral countries. This puts this side of the world in a nebula of restructuring of powers that does not yet have a definitive face. The United States, with its withdrawal from Afghanistan, gave regional enemies an image that its ally Israel is paying dearly for. As the West enters into crisis, geopolitics changes and places the world one step beyond unipolar conflict towards multipolar reality. It’s not just about weapons, but about positions and how they are used as an advantage in the international context. Iran has a nuclear capability in the making and this is undoubtedly a turning point, but beyond the military disposition, politics is being defined in terms of alliances that follow the shadow of the financial system. United States sanctions have scared away the users of the dollar, therefore increasing the BRICS and the need of the people for a less corrupt representation of their monetary interests, as well as of the assets and their movement at an international level.

Iran is an important partner of the irregular groups that act as a proxy counterweight in the region and this gives it this strategic advantage. It’s not just the weapon and its quality important, but also the possibility of placing it and using certain agents in accordance with a political construction purpose. Both the Houthis and Hamas or Hezbollah have put the regular powers and their interests in crisis and this has led to the reshaping of the power theses and the image of the decisions of the West in order to maintain its ideology. This fall of Europeans and North Americans has come hand in hand with the rise of Russia, which played a leading role in the overthrow of the Islamic State and the terrorist groups that were sabotaging and setting the region in crisis.

But there’s more to it, geopolitics is not only made of weapons, but of culture and religion, and the fall of the prestige of the West has made the differences between Islam branches decisive in the resurgence of conflicts, making the Middle East a powder keg in the world. Iran, in this scenario, is forced to act and establish geopolitics based on the demonstration of sovereignty and commitment to the Arabs. Israel has shown that it will not give in and that it’s willing to generate a world crisis with the oil prices to pressure its Western partners to participate with them in the conflict. The differences with Iran and the non-signing of the peace in Gaza have triggered the price of hydrocarbons and Tel Aviv knows that the United States and Europe are dependent on this resource. So, as long as the West does not guarantee that Israel has the full support of the world, there will be blackmail. Therefore, it’s uncertain who is in charge in these alliances between the leaders of Israel and the West. Furthermore, as the electoral panorama in the United States becomes raveled, there will be problems in the international alliances and the clashing points may increase. The mixture between the conflict in the Middle East and that of Ukraine does no one any good and leads to all this escalating at an international level and the shadow of a planetary war becoming more possible every passing day.

Will Iran be able to restrain Israel and lead it to peace in Gaza? Will Israel be able to maintain its power in the region and crush the irregular resistance while stopping the rise of Iran? And what about the alliances in the region between the United States and its group and between Russia and its group? If we look at similar scenarios in the past, we will see that large-scale wars had such attempts as precedents and at the same time the international system and diplomacy proved ineffective. When the globalist and unipolar world of 1991 died, Western countries only have to offer war as an alternative power. Beyond that, there’s the acceptance of a shared power where the dollar ceases to be the measure of all things. But perhaps that’s why we have a Donald Trump running for the White House, since the political class of Western circles has not adapted to its transitional role.

While the time for elections comes and the empire decides what will happen with its power elite, the reshaping of the Middle East is one of the elements that decides votes and that goes to the panorama of the most determining analyses. While Kamala has been reticent with Tel Aviv and speaks of the need for an agreement, she has a warlike side in Ukraine; Trump, on the other hand, says that he can end the war between Kyiv and Moscow in 24 hours, but he shows his unrestricted support for Israel. On these conflicting bases, world peace is being defined, amidst the game, irony and hatred between the parties, in that vile reality that is the politics of Western countries.

The relations between Iran and Israel are a reflection of those that exist between the blocks and have a correlation in North American politics. While the resources of the Middle East are decisive in the use of oil and therefore in the value of the dollar and the standard of living of North Americans, this region will have to be placed as one of the variables that define it. What can be expected for the next months? The elections in the United States make the panorama very unpredictable, especially because either of the two factions in conflict brings proposals that can unbalance the scales. Trump, who has supposedly shown an image of a president who doesn’t make wars, speaks of stopping proxy conflicts in the region and of strengthening Israel. Kamala maintains that armed and financial support for Kyiv is a priority. It seems that the parties are not going to give in and that the margin of conflict is expanding. The UN as an organization has shown its ineffectiveness in achieving objectives and at this point has ignored calls for peace. Resolutions are frozen in the Security Council and remain in the rhetoric of the issue.

Whatever the case, peace will not be achieved with the current methods. In the center of Tehran there’s a clock that tells time that according to them Israel has left as a state and that philosophy, although it could be based on the need to defend the Arabs against so much historical injustice, is nothing more than a detail of how far hatred can escalate in the region and the nefarious consequences for everyone. The exchange of rockets and the fact that the escalation from drones to ballistic missiles tells us that the world is not moving towards a path of understanding and that issues related to life and coexistence are not the topics currently under discussion, but rather the prevalence of ideologies and factual powers that support certain interests.

The Middle East is a powder keg which fuse can’t be said to be extinguished; on the contrary, it’s lit and about to generate the biggest explosion. The responses between the actors, the aggressiveness of the discourse, the reality that’s getting out of hand and that’s already terrible; all these aspects make the region the worst right now for coexistence and peace. What will happen after the elections in the United States? That would be risking a prediction in the midst of the contradictions of a planet in which not only peace is at stake, but the permanence of life. A war of the proportions that could occur would not only be the end of the West or of the countries that oppose it, but of every vestige of civilization. It seems the powers prefer that to seeing the birth of a new order.

Translated by Amilkal Labañino / CubaSí Translation Staff