Geopolitics: Beware of What's Coming

The so-called Twelve-Day War has shaken the world with the closest thing ever seen to a global war. Analytical perspectives vary and therefore depend on the geopolitical stance from which they are conducted. For Trumpists, it’s a surgical operation that ended tension between two regional powers, causing one of them to seemingly lose its ability to create a nuclear force. But reality points to other, more illustrative points, and the fact that facilities that were already known to have been evacuated were bombed is very significant. In concrete terms, the United States brought fire to the desert, with minimal losses for Iran. From that same realistic perspective, Tehran has never had atomic weapons nor any intention of possessing them, as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has, incidentally, inspected those facilities.

So, what does the US administration gain not only from its direct attack but also from the escalation of its protégé, Tel Aviv? We must understand that we live in a world of narratives in which what matters is not reality, but rather the perception of reality. In other words, the US leadership is not interested in whether its military objective was in fact neutralized, but rather in a display of force that "demonstrates" that the United States is capable of maintaining its traditional role. In other words, it’s a symptom of the weakness of the superpower, which, when at its peak, has truly known how to use smart power to achieve its geopolitical goals. The operation has cost millions of dollars, and its only gain, five months after Trump's arrival, is being able to showcase some foreign policy achievement by that administration that offsets the scandal of domestic failure.

And did he succeed? Trump's anger on social media toward Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's statements shows that this is what worries him most: that his enemy will somehow steal his victory podium. The president is governing for his ego and with the goal of sustaining a narrative that lacks substantial facts. What worries us is that this could unleash an international crisis with real consequences, which would lead to a major clash between nuclear-capable powers. On Iran's own borders, Pakistan was willing to provide assistance in this regard, which reflects the diplomatic chaos the Middle East may be experiencing right now. Countries that have more or less achieved coexistence are reigniting those differences under the criterion of proxy war, and that’s the spark needed for a major fire.

At the urgent NATO meeting, the United States was seen acting arrogantly, making demands on its allies and showing disregard for the very world order they themselves promoted and which has benefited them so much. On the one hand, there was a show of force in the Middle East, and on the other, a gesture of distancing themselves from Europe. A mixture of imperialism and isolationism is one of the most essential features of this administration, which, however, continues to behave erratically in the diplomatic arena. To understand these motions, one must delve into the president's psyche and understand the leadership crisis of the Western political class. Both factors determine the lack of real proposals to break out of the swamp that’s transforming what was once globalism into a failed order. Perhaps the chaos may momentarily serve to slow the integration of emerging nations and delay the rise of Russia and China, but it’s a boomerang that will only bring misfortune in the face of the progressive weakening of the West's political, economic, and military fabric. The use of Tel Aviv's pawn is in fact a gesture of desperation, because they are setting fire to the East with the aim of making it no longer theirs if it ceases to be theirs. But what Israel should be concerned about is how the forces on the board will be distributed if the Pax Americana is forgotten. Because impunity and blood debt will return, and such an episode will not be at all flattering. The same could be happening with Ukraine, which provides the men, the land, and destruction to paralyze the West's adversaries in exchange for gifts to its political class, such as NATO membership (increasingly unlikely); similarly in the case of Taiwan, which would be the model for direct proxy war against China (something that has not escalated due to Beijing's strategic superiority).

But in this confrontation Geopolitically, for the new world order, both Russia and China continue to have the advantage. The United States, on the other hand, is running out of time, and it may be too late to rectify its mistakes. Disregarding Europe could leave it at the mercy of natural and advantageous trade with Russia. The end of the war in Ukraine will mark the end of Pax Americana and the beginning of the conditions for emerging nations, each with its own worldview. This is how one of the most lucid minds of our time, philosopher Alexander Dugin, describes it, referring to the fourth political theory and the beginning of the Great Awakening. There’s a different possibility in the integration of non-Western powers and the construction of an order that is not only commercial, but also cultural, ontological, and meaningful. Here, the American strategy, which is like a revival of the British Empire, collapses under its own weight, as it lacks life options.

While the West seeks to project an image of strength, the East effectively presents it and plays firmly on a board where it seems every piece belongs to it.
In the midst of all this, what future does Magaism have? As an ideology whose only truth is strength as the alpha and omega, if it fails to comply with that principle, it lacks weight and foundation. There’s an expectation among voters, one that led them to bet on imperialism's final swansong, a guarantee not only of sustaining an increasingly plummeting lifestyle, but also of wounded national pride. If foreign policy actions don't lead to a real result (and we're seeing that happening), Trump's tantrums will erode his social base, and this will be exploited by his domestic enemies. Therefore, the president is digging his own grave when he bets on an external image of strength in the face of domestic disadvantage. This razor's edge is so risky that the slightest carelessness can plunge him into abyss by midterm elections, those that threaten to take both legislative chambers away from the Republicans. In fact, within the ruling party, there’s a growing weariness with a fruitless formula for rescuing the empire. If in 1945 the very imperialist Churchill had the vision to realize that this was not the era of Gladstone or Disraeli, now we are clearly not witnessing a politician of the stature of the old English lion.

Magaism's days are numbered, because imposing the desires of the movement's masses of voters would require sweeping away the geopolitical enemies of the United States, and that will not be achieved without a nuclear holocaust. Neither Putin nor Xin will admit that the whims of a power losing prestige and influence guide their foreign policy actions. Magaism's great flaw is that it confuses desires with reality and, after creating the narrative it likes, is the first to believe it and spread it. It’s a totally postmodern and late-globalist movement. Postmodern because it champions narratives over tangible truths, and globalist because it seeks to establish by default the order of uncontested post-1991 globalism, even when conditions are different.

The options are change or Holocaust, and in the latter, not even the millionaire globalists will be safe, no matter how many nuclear shelters have been built. In this change, which hopefully will be peaceful, the United States is reserved a role similar to that occupied by the Netherlands with respect to the British Empire when the succession from one commercial power to another took place. In fact, Americans are already wholesale importers of New World manufactures and are acutely dependent on such products. While the Netherlands remained a second-tier empire with its colonies and even a certain prestige in Europe, England occupied all the relevant positions and sold manufactured goods to Amsterdam and its colonies. Change is structural and inevitable and is based on the international weight of production and exports. Furthermore, for China's economic health, it’s vital that it expand in this way, or it will end up imploding with its inward-looking industrialization. These are almost natural laws of the market, although they are mediated by human interests and subjectivities.

Can the United States' GDP under Magaism reverse the current global trend? No, this is impossible, even with rational economic growth policies and the creation of a system of opportunities within the northern nation. The deposit of consumption patterns and imports in supply chains has created a configuration that works, but it’s driving a crisis and a trade balance in which the United States is not favored. What we are seeing is that, coupled with failed immigration policies, a process of contraction in manufacturing and production is taking place. Essential productions that could lead to historic inflation. The effect on GDP is negative, but we must remember that the important thing here is the electoral narratives, and we must see how the Magaism will subside.

For now, the Twelve-Day War appears to be just another episode in the struggle for symbols that have characterized this administration, but it's worth reaffirming once again that, while culture and the media are part of power, the essence of real and intelligent power is different and unfolds in many other fields that are also in dispute. When the uproar of emotions in the American political class fades away and we have to talk about GDP and debt again, to what new geopolitical flank will they want to divert attention? Be very careful with what's coming.

Translated by Amilkal Labañino / CubaSi Translation Staff