U.S. voters, grappling with high prices and angered by an unpopular war with Iran, will decide on Tuesday in the midterm elections whether a drastic shift in power occurs in Washington, in a vote that will serve as a referendum on President Donald Trump's second term.

Democrats were cautiously optimistic about their prospects as they watched Republicans enter the final stretch of the campaign injecting tens of millions of dollars into states and districts Trump won comfortably just two years ago. They point to discontent over Trump's failure to fulfill his promise to address rising costs, and the perception that he has focused more on embellishing the nation's capital than on people's difficulties paying for gasoline, as factors that will depress Republican turnout and drive their own voters to the polls.

Republicans held out hope that their overwhelming money advantage would help contain the tide, but they were bracing to lose control of the U.S. House of Representatives and struggling to hold the U.S. Senate, an outcome that seemed unlikely at the start of this year, given a map many considered favorable to the party.

Still, the margins are narrow in both chambers and one or two seats could tip the balance. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in the Senate to win a majority, a challenge because many of the most competitive races are in traditionally Republican states. In the House, they need only three.

More than 57 million people had already cast their ballots by Monday, with turnout surpassing early voting from four years ago in many closely watched states.

Trump, whose party has struggled to mobilize the infrequent voters who have powered his victories when he is not on the ballot, has asked voters to act as if he were on the ticket, even as many Republican candidates have tried to keep their distance.

"I really want you to pretend I'm on the ballot," the president told the crowd in Salina, Kansas, on Sunday night, at the last of several dozen rallies in the final weeks of the campaign.

Trump's aggressive schedule included stops in the most Republican states, among them Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas, underscoring his party's challenges.

The president has also continued to make false claims about election fraud, such as insisting that noncitizens are voting in droves. His administration has already filed lawsuits in Alaska and California, and Democrats fear interference and voter intimidation as his Justice Department threatens to prosecute local election officials.

An Election That Could Reshape the Political Landscape

The results will shape the final two years of Trump's second term after the Republican-controlled Congress automatically approved much of his agenda. Although Trump has demonstrated an ability to steamroll efforts to stop him, if Democrats take control of even one chamber of Congress it would open the floodgates to investigations, as well as possible impeachments. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and tech magnate Elon Musk are among the possible targets.

An especially strong performance by Democrats would also give a boost to the group of potential presidential candidates waiting in the wings, from California Governor Gavin Newsom to Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. It could also complicate the paths of Vice President JD Vance and other Republicans who may seek to convert their loyalty to the president into political momentum.

Republicans had tried to defy historical precedent — almost always the president's party loses seats in midterm elections — with an aggressive redistricting effort aimed at creating a more favorable electoral map. But the plan could fall short, as new districts drawn in Florida and other states to be "safe" for Republicans might not vote that way.

Other Trump decisions could prove costly. In Texas, Trump worked to oust veteran Senator John Cornyn in favor of scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton, setting the stage for an extraordinarily expensive race against Democratic candidate James Talarico, whom Democrats hope will finally help them fulfill their dream of flipping the state.

And in North Carolina, Senator Thom Tillis chose to retire after clashing with Trump. The president's chosen replacement, former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley, has struggled to gain traction against the Democratic candidate, former Governor Roy Cooper.

"It all comes down to turnout. If we get our voters out, we win, and that's what we've been planning," Republican National Committee chairman Joe Gruters commented, expressing optimism on the eve of the election.

"Even though there's a lot of pessimism out there, I believe we can defy history. We just need our voters to turn out," he added. "We still believe we can take off and win."

The vast majority of Republican spending on television ads in the general election — 88.1% — went to states and districts Trump won in 2024, according to an analysis by The Associated Press of data from AdImpact, a media tracking firm. That included more than $850 million spent on ad reservations in states and districts Trump won by 10 points or more.

The Electorate Has Grown Disenchanted With Trump

Polls show that only 35% of U.S. adults approve of Trump's performance as president, according to the latest survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. And most blame him for high prices as they struggle to afford gasoline and food.

What was once his strongest issue no longer is. Only 25% of U.S. adults now say they approve of Trump's handling of the economy. Overall, about 7 in 10 say the country is heading in the wrong direction.

"The American people are angry. They want change. They want people who will stand up for them," said Representative Suzan DelBene, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, who maintained that momentum was on her party's side despite what seemed an infinite supply of money from Republicans.

The results, she said, "should send a very forceful message that people have grown disenchanted with their agenda."

Republicans now hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate.

Democrats have been more confident in their chances of winning North Carolina and holding Georgia, where Senator Jon Ossoff faces Representative Mike Collins. Other key battlegrounds include Ohio, where former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown challenges Republican Senator Jon Husted, and Alaska, where the government filed a lawsuit to block certification of the state's Senate results if Republican Dan Sullivan, the incumbent, loses the race, citing the presence of a second candidate named Dan Sullivan on the ballot.

Republicans, for their part, hope to hold seats in states such as Iowa, Kansas and Maine, and win Michigan, where Mike Rogers faces progressive Abdul El-Sayed, one of a group of left-wing candidates who prevailed in Democratic primaries this election season. El-Sayed's former primary rival, Haley Stevens, shook up the race on Sunday by endorsing Rogers, renewing the focus on tensions over Israel and the party's direction that dominated the Democratic primaries.

In the House, Republicans, who hoped to gain seats with their redistricting efforts, are now trying to cling to their narrow majority, while Democrats seek to flip seats in states Trump has repeatedly won, from Florida to Texas and Iowa.

Beyond Washington, 36 states will elect governors. Democrats hope to win a majority of governorships for the first time in two decades thanks to a wave of voter discontent. Among the competitive races are those in heavily populated states such as Texas and Florida, as well as traditionally Republican states like Iowa.

In Ohio, the campaign of Republican Vivek Ramaswamy faced criticism over an ad featuring the estranged mother of Democrat Amy Acton, who lost custody of Acton decades ago after her husband, Acton's stepfather, was accused of raping Acton when she was a child.

What Is at Stake in Washington Is High

Trump's final two years in office will likely be defined in part by the outcome of the fight for control of Congress.

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is in position to make history as the country's first Black Speaker of the House if his party sweeps to power, has outlined an ambitious 100-day agenda focused on lowering the cost of living and on aggressive oversight of the Trump administration, as he frames it, to "hold the corrupt accountable." Impeachment is not ruled out.

The Senate, where leadership is unlikely to change, could become a key backstop for Trump's priorities if Republicans retain control, or a new center of power for Democrats, who could use it to block presidential nominations and challenge the White House agenda.

The 2026 elections will likely go down in history as the most expensive. Republican committees have raised and spent far more than their Democratic counterparts thanks, in large part, to money from groups affiliated with Trump and Musk. But at the candidate level, Democrats raised more than their Republican opponents.