Brazil’s progressive president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is employing social media in a way he never has before, while also working to turn high abstention rates to his advantage. These efforts are part of his bid to prevent the reactionary opposition candidate, Flavio Bolsonaro, from winning the presidential runoff on the 25th of this month.

Polls continue to favor the son of Jair Bolsonaro—who remains in prison for a failed coup attempt—while other candidates defeated in the first round have thrown their support behind Flavio.

Ever since Bolsonaro secured a significant victory by finishing ahead of Lula in the first round, he steadily gathered support for his project of “defeating the Workers' Party.” This backing comes as no surprise, as the senator entered the election as the primary candidate for a fractured right wing. No other party was initially willing to form an alliance with him, yet it remained relatively clear that they would eventually join forces with the Bolsonaros for the decisive electoral battle.

Now, traditional center-right and classical right-wing groups have formalized their support for the candidate of the Liberal Party (PL)—the party of the Bolsonaros. Among those offering support are the Republicans (Republicanos)—a party established by the Universal Church—as well as Podemos, União Brasil, Progressistas, and Novo.

In a show of strength, nine governors elected in the first round gathered in Brasília this Thursday to rally behind the younger Bolsonaro. On Sunday, the Liberal Party (PL) expanded its territorial and legislative reach; it increased its majority in the Chamber of Deputies to 121 out of 513 seats and is nearing the number of Senate seats required to launch an offensive against the Supreme Court. Four members of the Bolsonaro family have secured seats.

Although Protestant churches share stronger ideological affinities with Bolsonarism, their leaderships maintain ethical disagreements with the PL. Nevertheless, in the long run, they will likely offer their support.

Emerging victorious and emboldened is former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been a central figure in Brazil’s electoral campaign and will surely be ready to engage—and once again take center stage—over the next three weeks.

His involvement is imminent, even if Lula decides to shift his combative rhetoric regarding the former U.S. president and the North American power. Right-leaning figures—such as Colombia’s Abelardo De la Espriella, Argentina’s Javier Milei, Chile’s José Antonio Kast, and Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa, among others—will also likely want to "do their bit" to contribute.

LULA, HIGHLY ACTIVE

On Friday, in his capacity as president, Lula enacted a new tax exemption on gasoline. Meanwhile, as leader of the Workers' Party (PT), he is encouraging his supporters to reach out to people one by one—whether neighbors or fellow internet users.

On Friday, he took to the streets once again, this time in a *favela* in Brasília. In Ceilândia—a stronghold for the Bolsonaristas and the neighborhood where the new senator, Michelle Bolsonaro, grew up—Lula declared: “This country will not be governed by fascism again; it will not be governed by those responsible for the COVID deaths, or by the associates of Banco Master and Vorcaro [a multi-million fraud case in which Flávio Bolsonaro is under investigation]. We will stand together; there will be plenty of debate on television and online.” The president is specifically targeting the 33 million people who abstained from voting, particularly those over the age 70.

Lula is the sole candidate of the left, heading the “Alliance of Hope” (*Aliança da Esperança*). Led by the Workers' Party (PT), the coalition includes four other leftist parties, as well as the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB)—the party of Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, a former rival who is now running for reelection. Lula recruited Alckmin in 2022 to help defeat Bolsonaro, and Alckmin has remained a loyal ally. He serves as a key draw for business leaders and conservatives concerned about institutional integrity.

Although the gap in the first round appeared narrow—with 47.03% of valid votes going to the far-right, represented by Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party), compared to 45.16% for Lula (Workers' Party)—the current political and electoral landscape presents a highly complex situation for the incumbent’s campaign. The momentum leading up to the decisive October 25th vote requires the Brazilian left to rapidly restructure its tactical alliances and its discursive framework—all within a span of just three weeks. Faced with an unexpected outcome, their strategists will have to work some kind of magic.

The leader’s own reaction—acknowledging the result while immediately calling for "a different kind of campaign"—shows that the left has felt the impact of the outcome but remains prepared to make the necessary adjustments. The next three weeks will be an intensely demanding political battle, one that will test the left’s capacity to reinvent itself and recover in the face of adversity. Should they fail, the radical right will have all but completely taken over the subcontinent.

BOLSONARO NEVER AGAIN

Thousands of people demonstrated in Rio de Janeiro against Flávio Bolsonaro and the potential return of the far-right to power in Brazil, as the campaign for the October 25th runoff began. Under the slogan " Bolsonaro Never again," participants voiced their fears regarding budget cuts and the senator’s proposal to grant amnesty to his father—who was convicted for his role in an attempted coup d'état.

"I’m here because I believe in democracy, and because I’m afraid," said 25-year-old Alice Carneiro, an administrator who was moved to tears by her fear that a victory for the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro could harm her wife, who is transgender.

The protesters criticized the administration of Jair Bolsonaro, who held power between 2019 and 2022, is remembered for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic—which he downplayed as a "little flu"—a period that left more than 700,000 people dead in Brazil. "I remember that my family's lives were at risk during the pandemic, I remember the denial of vaccines," said Carneiro.

Amid the uncertainty, protesters recalled the cuts Jair Bolsonaro made to federal universities, research grants, and the government program "Farmacia Popular" (Popular Pharmacy), which provides free or discounted medications.

"I find this rise of the far-right and the surge of 'Bolsonarism' in Brazil to be very, very sad," said 19-year-old Emmanuel Araujo, who is currently preparing for university entrance exams.

Iara Pinheiro, who voted for the first time at age 16, also feels a sense of panic: "I am a Black woman, and I believe we will lose our rights if things continue the way they are."

FLAVIO’S CRIMINAL CONDUCT

AFP notes that the Brazilian Public Prosecutor's Office has filed charges against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro—the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro—who is suspected of participating, with the help of an aide, in a scheme to divert public funds during his time as a regional deputy in Rio de Janeiro.

This marks the first time charges have been brought against a member of the Bolsonaro family. A court will now decide whether to accept the indictment and initiate legal proceedings against the suspects.

The Rio Public Prosecutor's Office has accused Flavio Bolsonaro of participating in a criminal organization, money laundering, misappropriation, and embezzlement—crimes allegedly committed between 2007-2018.

Also named in the case as an operator of the scheme is his former aide, Fabrício Queiroz—a 54-year-old former officer in the Rio Military Police who is very close to the Bolsonaro family—along with fifteen other individuals. The case came to light in late 2018, after the financial intelligence unit (COAF) discovered atypical transactions between 2016-2017 in an account belonging to Queiroz, totaling 1.2 million reais ($376,000 at the 2017 average exchange rate).

In December 2019, police raided several properties belonging to Flavio Bolsonaro, his former aides from the Rio de Janeiro Legislative Assembly, and President Bolsonaro’s second wife, as part of an investigation into a scheme known as "rachadinha"—a practice in which employees return a portion of their salaries to the legislator.

According to earlier information from the Public Prosecutor's Office, the senator allegedly moved a total of 2.7 million reais ($474,000 at today’s exchange rate) through this scheme.

In August, *Crusoé* magazine reported that Queiroz had deposited 21 checks—totaling 72,000 reais ($12,600 at today’s exchange rate)—into the account of Michelle Bolsonaro, the current wife of the then-president, between 2011 and 2016.

Days later, when asked by a journalist about the First Lady’s involvement in this illicit payment scheme, the president replied: "I really want to smash your mouth in!"

In June, Queiroz—who had been untraceable for months—was arrested at the residence of a lawyer who serves as defense counsel for Flavio Bolsonaro. The former aide, who has been linked to Rio’s feared paramilitary militias, is currently under house arrest, following a *habeas corpus* ruling by the Supreme Federal Court.

Translated by Amilkal Labañino / CubaSí Translation Staff