Inflation in the United States accelerated once again in April, reaching its highest level in three years. This surge was primarily driven by the sharp increase in oil and gasoline prices amid the ongoing war between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), prices rose 3.8% year-over-year in April, up from the 3.3% recorded in March. This represents the second consecutive increase and the highest inflationary level since 2023. As recently as February, inflation stood at 2.4%, nearing the Federal Reserve's (FED) 2% target.

The primary factor behind this escalation was the energy impact stemming from the Middle East conflict and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for approximately one-fifth of the world's oil. This tension has triggered “one of the largest oil shocks recorded in recent years”.

Gasoline prices jumped 5% between March and April alone. According to AAA data, the average price of a gallon in the United States reached $4.50—approximately $1.52 more than before the start of the war on February 28. This represents an increase of nearly 50% in just over two months.

The escalation has also impacted transportation and tourism, with airfares rising 2.8% in April due to higher fuel costs. Analysts further warn that rising energy costs could “quickly translate to food, furniture, and other goods” transported by diesel-powered trucks and ships.

This economic deterioration is being reflected in consumer sentiment. A University of Michigan survey in May showed the “lowest level of confidence since the measurement began in 1978”.

Despite inflationary pressures, some economic indicators continue to show resilience. Unemployment remained at 4.3% in April, and the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2% during the first quarter of 2026, up from the 0.5% recorded in the previous quarter.

However, this new scenario increases the pressure on the Federal Reserve, which “could be forced to raise interest rates again to contain inflation”. Since the beginning of the year, the Fed has held the cost of money unchanged for three consecutive meetings following gradual cuts in 2025. Markets currently estimate a 70% probability that rates will remain stable through the end of the year, though an aggravation of the Middle East conflict could alter that outlook.