In a meeting with Republicans, Donald Trump told them they have to win the November elections, otherwise, the Democrats will impeach him. Photo: AFP / Freepik

Anyone analyzing the geopolitical direction of the United States today must consider the internal power dynamics within the party system and the ideological and corporate tendencies that share influence in decision-making. In fact, military actions in both Iran and Venezuela are understood in light of how the Republic needs to project itself as an empire abroad and thus gain a certain voter base that allows it to mobilize, operate, and legitimize its power. In this analysis, we have seen how this year's elections may be influencing what we have observed in international politics. A ground intervention in Iran is likely something the Pentagon will never back down from and that would further jeopardize the current administration's stability. A geopolitical countermeasure in the region against any of the non-aligned Caribbean countries could, however, be seen as a show of force to be capitalized on in November. That is why this moment is so dangerous.

We are not speaking here, of course, of war in its necessarily conventional sense, but rather in its multidimensional cultural, ideological, and intelligence dimensions. What matters is the narrative in terms of votes, and that can define what happens on the battlefield. Iran has done something recently: it has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a weapon of mass destruction for the Western economy. This weakness, which led Trump to lift sanctions against Russian oil and thus contradict his protectionist philosophy of the American economy, is so evident that analysts see it as a crack to be filled. And in politics, one noise is covered up with another, one narrative with another, often without regard for the costs, without caring what is lost along the way. November is the deadline, the one that defines many things. Not the executive branch, but the legal dimension of what is done in the United States. Before that, we are subject to almost anything. The world has seen how the United Nations' social contract has been dismantled, and now all that remains is the veto power of the permanent members of the Security Council. A veto that, nevertheless, is theoretical, because armed actions are carried out first and questions are asked later.

Therefore, we must consider the dual nature of the United States. On the one hand, the Republic internally, which doesn't mean it's a system of transparency, but rather a network of institutions and rules with checks and balances. On the other hand, the Empire, currently limited only by its will and by the danger of containing a nuclear war with other powers. This precarious balance is what sustains world peace. In the middle, the narratives that, in the age of social media, polarize voters, deny the truth, and operate with confirmation bias through corporate media. The threat is real, immense, and inevitable. We have seen this when it comes to justifying any action, regardless of international law.

Geopolitics, on the other hand, does not operate on whims or short-term electoral interests. It aspires to long-term goals, and in this chess game, Chinese patience is winning the battle against American impulsiveness. The more military spending increases, the more needs to be replenished in a country that does not produce and imports everything from Asia; the greater the dependence and the more the trade balance widens to Beijing's benefit. The United States is seeking a dramatic impact through physical expansion to maintain a temporary administration during a time of electoral crisis; but emerging powers change their executive representatives only when absolutely necessary and formulate long-term policies that are generally implemented. Alternation of power, vested interests, lobbying, and the fragmentation of the Western political class are factors that are currently eroding the system from within. The Republic is unstable, and this affects the Empire. Perhaps this should be analyzed in terms of how Rome fell. The United States apparently demonstrated strength in Venezuela. And also in Iran. But in terms of attrition, projection of real power, and the capacity to reproduce that power, China is in a much more advantageous position. This is especially true because Beijing can recapitalize international law to its advantage, since while the UN is denied daily by the Western elite, the Chinese rely on its structures to exert influence. And the first thing that happens when a new hegemonic power consolidates itself is a change in the structure and practice of international law.

What can we expect in the coming months regarding these power dynamics? There are two possible scenarios. First, the United States becomes bogged down in Iran, and military advisors prioritize a reasonable solution to that conflict without opening other fronts in another region (which seems the most realistic and sensible approach). Second, the United States becomes bogged down in Iran and, to favor the reelection of the political class, uses a third conflict with a second active front to seek an easy, quick, seemingly decisive victory. After November, the reality will be different, because no one in their right mind believes that the effects of Trump's tariff policy will lead to a Republican reelection. Much less so with his immigration policies, which have generated losses in the millions, in addition to the regrettable incidents that fueled massive protests. But to get to that point, the world has to survive, and under the current conditions, the existential danger for everyone is the greatest. It’s on this level that the Republicans' haste and the administration's bellicosity become clear. It's not strength, it's desperation.

Whatever short-term outcome Trump seeks with these actions, it jeopardizes the United States' long-term status as the world's leading power. Nothing will reverse the economic downturn and the decline in the reliability of the dollar. In geopolitical terms, these are the desperate flailings of an elderly person trying to reaffirm a whim, a fiction in their mind that they wish to perpetuate at all costs.

Translated by Amilkal Labañino / CubaSí Translation Staff