The assumption of power on July 7th by a right-wing government in Colombia cannot be viewed objectively; rather, it constitutes a greater threat than one might think, especially in a nation where the opposing forces represent half of the total electorate.

Therefore, it’s essential that progressive forces unite firmly in the face of the resurgence of a right wing championed by Trump that is not traditional, but rather part of a transnational political current that brings together business sectors, think tanks, digital platforms, and powerful economic interests beyond national borders. These are not isolated phenomena, but projects that share strategies, discourses, and political objectives.

This new right wing follows the same script, promising order, security, and efficiency while portraying the State as the main obstacle to development. It transforms permanent confrontation into a form of governance and uses social media to instill fear, discredit the opposition, and shape public opinion. Its purpose is not only to win elections, but to redefine the role of the State and consolidate a new power bloc.

The recent announcements by Abelardo de La Espriella confirm this orientation. The elimination of government agencies and advisory bodies, presented as an austerity policy, includes the disappearance of institutions dedicated to national reconciliation, human rights, and the implementation of the Final Peace Agreement. The argument for reducing the size of the state echoes one of the main beliefs of contemporary neoliberalism.

However, Colombia does not have an oversized state, and reducing its institutional capacity does not guarantee growth or well-being. On the contrary, the risk is that, under the guise of efficiency, public capacities aimed at guaranteeing rights and building peace will be weakened.
Behind these decisions lies a broader political project: to deepen the neoliberal model, strengthen Colombia's subordination to the strategic interests of the United States, stigmatize the opposition, and shift much of the political dispute to the arena of cultural warfare through social media, digital platforms, and artificial intelligence.

For now, the new president, even before taking office, has already suffered a setback when Congress voted overwhelmingly against his presidential candidate and in favor of another candidate, also from the right, who unusually served to unite the legislators of the Uribista Democratic Center with the progressives of the Historical Pact.

The outgoing government submitted a new tax reform bill to Congress on Tuesday, despite the fact that the legislature has rejected similar initiatives twice before, to raise approximately $6.77 billion by increasing taxes on wealth, income, fuel, and gambling.

"The core of the tax effort... must come from the large fortunes, from the high incomes held by a very exclusive minority in the country," Finance Minister Germán Ávila told the press.

At the beginning of his term, Petro secured majorities in Congress, which facilitated his political agenda. However, the relationship became strained over time, and several of his key reforms, such as those to the healthcare system, were rejected on multiple occasions.

FAR-RIGHT ANTI-PEACE

The announcements by Colombia's president-elect, Abelardo de la Espriella, foreshadow a shift in the South American country's peace policy. The far-right leader indicates that he will dispense with the Peace Commissioner and eliminate positions and agencies whose functions would be assumed by various ministries.

In this context, the continuity of the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP) and the funding of its rulings are at risk. "Clearly, this is a discourse that seeks to discredit one of the most important institutions of transitional justice in Colombia," Stefan Peters, director of the Colombian-German Institute for Peace (CAPAZ), told the German news agency DW.

"More than peace itself, the new government is trying to distance itself from President Gustavo Petro's 'Total Peace' policy. What remains unclear is whether it will have any peace strategy. It seems unlikely, understood in the traditional Colombian sense of negotiation processes." “A highly politically charged negotiation with armed groups,” notes Luis Fernando Trejos, professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of the North in Colombia.

Instead, a cycle of negotiations based on “submission to justice, in which the emphasis will be more legal than political,” Trejos indicates. This occurs amidst the current “de-ideologized phase of violence, in which groups are no longer fighting for national power, but rather for control of territories and the management of illegal economies,” the researcher adds.

In Peters’ opinion, “peace policy has been and continues to be a controversial and even polarizing issue.” While it has faced frequent challenges and problems, and has not achieved its objectives, a security-focused approach could translate into militarization.

Among the hypothetical risks, Trejos argues, is that "if Abelardo takes a hard line against the peace agreement, one of the undesirable scenarios is that some of the signatories will take up arms again if they feel there are no guarantees and that they are being politically and legally persecuted by the new government."

These are powerful actors, and it seems unlikely that military action will achieve the submission of all the illegal armed groups. "This won't be achieved without benefits, and it will surely require dialogue," Peters observes.

The professor of International Relations and Peace Studies at Jöns Liebig University in Teng, Germany, points out that the strongest and most consolidated organization, with the most armed members and the greatest territorial control, is the Gaetanita Army of Colombia, better known as the Clan del Golfo: "There, a military victory is very difficult to achieve, and even that also entails significant risk for the soldiers, which could quickly become unpopular."

Capturing leaders doesn't necessarily end the problem and can generate greater fragmentation and violence. Even if groups are dismantled by force, "the question remains of what comes next for the regions they control. If there are no policies that seek alternatives, it's very likely that another group will soon control the territory. Focusing on militarization is too simplistic for such a complex issue." “More than force, economic, social, and cultural solutions are also needed,” the political scientist argues.

In short, since his political stance is based on force, a firm hand, order, and security, De la Espriella is going to pursue that approach. The word “peace” is absent from the equation because it’s closely tied to Petro’s government and because, symbolically, it implies an equalization of the illegal and the legal through negotiation, while submission implies surrender to justice.

The future Minister of Justice, Iván Canción, has announced that he has a draft bill for the submission of armed groups to justice. Some of the groups that met with Petro’s government had already agreed to submit to justice, but the problem is that there was no legal framework.

MULTINATIONAL CRIME ORGANIZATION

Petro denounced this Monday that a multinational crime organization operates in the country, composed of criminals from 38 countries who have a presence in cities like Medellín and Bogotá, and whom he fought against from the Executive branch, during his speech in Congress. At the opening of the new ordinary session, he reviewed his term in office.

“How do you deal with a multinational corporation that lives in Dubai, or used to live there? Because the missiles forced them to flee to Paris or Miami, etc.,” Petro said, referring to the war in Iran that has spread to other Persian Gulf countries.

During his security review, the president also highlighted the increase in salaries for regular soldiers and auxiliary police officers, which rose from the equivalent of $93 in 2022 to $542 in 2026.

“It is fundamental that a soldier, a patrol officer, has a dignified salary. And this cannot be called wasteful.” “Of course it’s an expense, but it’s an investment,” he asserted.

Translated by Amilkal Labañino / CubaSí Translation Staff