Surprise Result Creates Uncertainty in Chilean Presidential Election

An unexpected doubt has crept into Chile's presidential elections after candidate Franco Parisi obtained a substantial number of votes, the transfer of which to the candidates who advanced to the runoff is now a major question. The second round is scheduled for December 14th.

On Sunday, as polls had predicted, the ruling party's communist candidate, Jeannette Jara, and one of the standard-bearers of the far-right, José Antonio Kast, advanced to the runoff, obtaining 26.85% and 23.92% of the votes, respectively.

The big surprise was Parisi, a conservative economist who presented himself as a centrist alternative, distanced from both the left and the right. It was his third time running, but polls had given him even single-digit voting intentions. They were wrong.

Parisi obtained a decisive 19.71%, thereby displacing another far-right leader, Johannes Kaiser, who received 13.94% of the votes.

Prior to the election, the anticipated scenario was that Jara would win the first round but not with a sufficient base to defeat Kast in the runoff, as the far-right candidate would add the votes of Kaiser and the conservative candidate Evelyn Matthei, who obtained 12.46% of the votes on Sunday.

That possibility remains, as Kaiser and Matthei are part of the influential Chilean right and far-right sectors, which were dispersed in this election and failed to build a single candidacy. With their votes, Kast could, for now, have the necessary support to win. If he also manages to attract Parisi's votes, his potential victory in the second round would be even more decisive.

Another possibility is that Jara secures Parisi's support and could become a more competitive candidate by adding, hypothetically, the 3% of votes obtained by the three independent candidates (Marco Enríquez-Ominami, Harold Mayne-Nicholls, and Eduardo Artés). However, the votes from other candidates are never transferred completely, leaving the electoral landscape highly polarized.

Challenges

Fully aware that he now holds a decisive role in the election—one that nobody anticipated—Parisi refused to endorse either candidate. "I have bad news for candidate Kast and candidate Jara: earn the votes, win over the streets," he stated on Sunday night.

With the first-round results confirmed, the newspaper El Mercurio consulted several Chilean political analysts on the scenario leading to the runoff. They agreed that Jara faces the main challenge, as Kast only needs the support of Matthei and Kaiser to guarantee his victory.

They also warned that on the path to the runoff, Jara should distance herself from the government of President Gabriel Boric, who has low approval ratings. Furthermore, they considered it important to clarify to citizens that her communist affiliation does not imply any risk for the country.

Regarding Kast, they advised that he doesn't even need to make "major concessions" to Parisi because he doesn't need them as much as Jara does.

In the experts' opinion, accessing Parisi's votes is highly complex. In the 2021 elections, when he ran for the presidency for the second time, his voters split, with about 32% going to Boric and 22% to Kast. Therefore, the destination of these decisive votes this time remains a significant unknown.