Cuban’s forecast ratifies a very active cyclone season

 In a recent update, the Cuban seasonal forecast, issued by specialists from the Meteorological Institute, ratified its initial projection that the 2024 cyclone season will have a very active behavior in the North Atlantic basin, which also includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

Dr. Miriam Teresita Llanes Monteagudo, director of the forecasting center of this institution, told Granma that for the rest of the season, 15 tropical storms are expected to form in this geographical area, nine of which could reach hurricane category.

Of the total number of tropical storms, 12 are expected to form in the Atlantic Ocean and three in the Caribbean. The chances that at least one hurricane will form and intensify in the Caribbean, and that one of Atlantic origin will enter the Caribbean, remain very high at 85% and 70%, respectively.

According to her, the probability that Cuba will be affected by at least one hurricane is 80%. In the case of at least one tropical storm, this probability reaches 90%.

Llanes Monteagudo emphasized that the oceanic and atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea remain favorable for the formation and development of tropical cyclones

Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic tropical belt continue to reach very high levels. From June 2023 to July 2024, every month has set a record for the period 1951-2024, and models suggest that this warming could continue for the next few months of the season, she said.

Another favorable factor for high cyclonic activity is the current predominance of neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean and the probable development of a new La Niña-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event starting in September or October.

As of yesterday, August 21, five tropical storms have formed, three in June and two in the first half of this month, of which three have reached hurricane category (Beryl, Debby and Ernesto).