Joe Biden's Youth Vote Has Collapsed in Four Years, Polls Show

Joe Biden's support among young voters has declined in the last four years, a new poll has revealed.

In March, it was confirmed that the Democrat will face his rival former President Donald Trump in November, in a rematch of the 2020 election. With seven months to go until voters head to the ballot boxes, the majority of polls have shown that the pair are basically neck-and-neck, meaning that shoring up the support of every demographic will be crucial in gaining the keys to the White House.

But Biden is losing ground with young people, a poll has shown, despite young people being part of the Democratic Party's natural base.

In the 2020 election, around 60 percent of people ages 18-29 voted for the Democrat.

But according to a Harvard Youth Poll released earlier this month, Biden's support among this age group has now declined, with 45 percent of 18-29 year olds planning to vote for him. While this is still more than the 37 percent who say they will vote for Trump, this shows Biden's support among the youth has significantly declined.

The survey was of 2,010 Americans aged 18-29. It was carried out between March 14 and 21 and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

It found that Biden has the support of 50 percent of registered voters to Trump's 37 percent and the support of 56 percent of likely voters, while Trump has the support of 37 percent.

The poll showed that if Trump is found guilty in any of his criminal trials, Biden's lead among all young people will increase from eight to 18 points.

It also found that this voting demographic is most concerned with inflation, with healthcare ranking second and housing third.

"As the Biden/Trump rematch takes shape, we see strong levels of engagement and interest in voting among young Americans," John Della Volpe, IOP polling director, said in a press release accompanying the results.

"Make no mistake, this is a different youth electorate than we saw in 2020 and 2022, and young voters are motivated by different things. Economic issues are top of mind, housing is a major concern—and the gap between young men's and young women's political preferences is pronounced."

Meanwhile, a separate CNN poll of voters aged 18-34 released on the weekend found that Biden is 11 percentage points behind Trump among these voters.

When this poll segmented those who voted in the 2020 election, Trump's lead narrowed, but he was still ahead 47 percent to 46 percent.

Speaking to Newsweek, Mark Shanahan, an associate professor of politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., said young people are disengaged with politics rather than moving away from Biden to Trump.

"Rather than Biden in particular, politics in general has a problem connecting with young people—those 18-29 year olds aren't flocking to Trump, they're just disengaging from the today's hyperpartisan, superficial politics totally. That is a problem for Biden who needs a coalition of the young, women, minorities and independents to ensure victory in November," Shanahan said.

"Younger people are more cause-driven, and are looking to the candidates for something to connect with. Obama, quite literally, offered them hope, while in 2016 and 2020 Bernie Sanders—hardly in the first fling of youth—offered a truly progressive agenda. If Biden's to get above water with the young, his campaign needs to be much more strongly aligned with cause-issues: women's reproductive rights, mental healthcare and student debt relief. He has already prioritized some of those areas, but needs to be more active and visible about them."

He added that Biden's response to the Israel-Hamas war was also causing young people to move away from him.

"Gaza is, of course, the hottest of buttons," he said. "While no one expects the USA to deflect from its support of Israel, the plight of the Palestinian people resonates with younger voters. Biden has to be seen to have a positive role in ending this war. If he doesn't, he will lose more youth support. Even if they don't vote for Trump, they jeopardize a second Biden term by simply not voting."

Speaking to Newsweek previously, Michael Tyler, the Biden-Harris 2024 communications director, claimed polling "consistently overestimates Donald Trump while underestimating President Biden."

"Whether it's in special elections or in the presidential primaries, actual voter behavior tells us a lot more than any poll does and it tells a very clear story: Joe Biden and Democrats continue to outperform while Donald Trump and the party he leads are weak, cash-strapped, and deeply divided," Tyler said.