#AnalizandoDatos: 2024 and the President Biden’s Administration

On Tuesday, November 5th, 2024, another presidential election will take place in the United States, adorned with descriptions like "the most complex", "historic", "determinant to save the free world", and of course, "the one greatest taxing". These are the same phrases that try to describe, every four years, such elections; questionable phrases indeed, but that contain the fact that the winner will certainly affect international geopolitics, and not necessarily positively.

We spend so much living from day to day, anyone would think that the mentioned date is far enough away not to worry us yet. However, the patterns of electoral politics that are consolidated in "Westernist" democracies increasingly give more weight to the political show, to the detriment of the content or political proposal.

Fueling this show —regardless of its worth as an investigative tool— the main North American pollsters and media offer us poll results that, of course, shed light on the political framework the United States will experience at the end of next year. For this reason, we propose to assess surveys and data, which allow us to gain elements about this coming process.

But let's talk today about Biden’s administration, the president who aims to win the Democratic nomination. Under a certain media logic, sometimes approached with little objectivity, the management of the current president is presented to us as disastrous, ridiculed also by certain ravings more fertile for memistics than for analysis. But beware, Biden is not that bad.

Between July 3-7, Economist/YouGov and Rasmussen Reports released surveys of Biden's job management, with very similar numbers. The first gave 40% approval against 55% disapproval, while the second reflectinged 45% and 52% respectively.

The first reading may seem misleading, since the management of a North American president is rarely valued positively by the majorities. Based on the polarization between the partisan tendencies of that country (Democrats and Republicans) and issues that divide (migration, economy, abortion, etc.), the 40 odds percent that approve his management represents a solid number with a view to a electoral process.

In fact, it’s not the White House that gets the worst evaluation. According to Economist/YouGov, only 17% of the country approves of the management of the US Congress and 62% disapproves. The difference between the approval of the president and that of Congress, controlled by his own party, speaks of the fact that the bad image and management of the latter has not dragged the president down. And it’s a point in favor of Biden's claims to remain in the White House until 2028.

Certainly, they are expressions and behaviors of variables that transcend a couple of surveys. But it’s sensible to study them.

Next week, we'll come up with some Trump numbers.

Translated by Amilkal Labañino / CubaSí Translation Staff