The "Cuba Problem" in US Strategic Calculations
Following the aggression against Venezuela, projections against Cuba were immediately activated from Washington. The question that titles this article hung in the air. All manner of threats proliferated, starting with the US president himself, to the digital media avalanche from troops financed by the "north revuelto y brutal que nos desprecia" (the turbulent and brutal north that scorns us), multiplying speculative publications and manipulations, spreading forecasts of apparent triumphalism, while knowing there is nothing to celebrate.

Behind all this is the biggest liar of the administration after Trump, Mr. Rubio, who believes the time has finally come to implement the mandate received for years from a coalition of "neobatistianos" of all types and colors, driven by oligarchs of distant Cuban origin, who sustain this mafia scourge with criminal inclinations and a presence in Congress and other spaces of high US politics.

The Flawed Logic of "Venezuela First"
Months of military siege, of laborious construction of an eventual and fragile coalition of Latin American countries against Venezuela—where certain whims from so-called progressivism have not been lacking—seemed to show the empire, and particularly the operator Mr. Rubio, that before the first year of the Trump administration ended, the "Cuban problem" could be ended, which involved finishing the "Venezolan problem."

The assumption was that by "ending" the Bolivarians, the material conditions for the fall of the Cuban Revolution would be created. Hence the slogan of Trump and company: "zero petroleum and Venezuelan money for Cuba," which would supposedly lead to the collapse of its economy and, thereby, the end of communism in Cuba—the most repeated phrase by those with scant or null intellectual capabilities.

Military Aggression: A Persistent Threat
Speculation on digital social networks continues about whether Mr. Rubio's project includes military aggression against Cuba. For Cuban authorities and people, this is a danger that is neither underestimated nor dismissed. The need to continue perfecting the country's defensive systems does not withstand two minutes of analysis. Of course, if it were up to Mr. Rubio, he would have sent the US Marines into combat years ago—while preserving his own skin.

However, as days passed after the aggression against Venezuela, things have become complicated for the Secretary of State. An indisputable fact remains: a rapid military incursion into Cuba did not follow, exploiting the "resounding success" of the action in Venezuela.

The Deterrent of Resistance and Shifting Rhetoric
Several reasons exist, but to start, highlighting what is already known: the "fierce" resistance of a small group of Cubans during the anti-Maduro operation, at a clear numerical, armament, and technological disadvantage, constitutes an unexpected deterrent element for Trump and high US military commands, aware of the details of the incursion in Caracas.

Soon after, Mr. Rubio, through his own voice and the histrionic Chief Trump, informed followers and interested believers that the largest of the Antilles was on the verge of collapse, that it was a matter of time due to existing sanctions, and that the only thing left for the US to do was to bomb everything, destroy the country from end to end—but phrased in a way that hinted he preferred not to do so; mysteries of Mr. President Trump's rhetoric.

Hours later, the White House occupant, after insisting that Cuba had no options but to surrender or be aggressed, reported that conversations were already underway with the Cuban government. This "Trumpist style"—first threatening, then seeking concessions from a position of strength—does not work with Cubans, as contemporary history shows, though those governing in Washington do not seem inclined to study past lessons.

The "Obama Variant" and Calls for Internal Change
In parallel, those who also hope to "end communism in Cuba," but with better manners—say, in the Obama style—have "suddenly" appeared. Thus, certain self-proclaimed independent media publish substantial analyses, in the mode of programmatic proposals, suggesting that the only way to avoid a US military strike is to accelerate certain "reforms"—without explaining which—hoping this will make Mr. Rubio happy and deter him from activating the war button against Cuba.

They speak, for example, of "democratic changes" and, curiously, of the need to expand spaces in the island's economy for the so-called Cuban diaspora in the US, implying they deserve special treatment and privileges compared to other foreign investors.

Constitutional Reality and Strategic Priorities
Alluding to "democratic changes" seems quite capricious, not least because nearly 90% of the Cuban population residing in Cuba approved the political model in the Constitution of 2019. Furthermore, do those proposing this really believe it is what interests Trump or Mr. Rubio? US politicians now in charge of deciding on invading Cuba have recently clarified they do not care about this topic.

The responsibility of Cuban authorities to implement actions that improve living conditions is undeniable; in fact, they are in close contact with the people for this purpose. This is the best way to strategically dismantle enemy plans: confronting and neutralizing the criminal impact of the blockade and developing the country despite it.

Ironically, thanks can be given to Chief Trump for stating that Cuba cannot be "squeezed or pressured more." His recognition of over 60 years of economic war facilitates ideological-political work and explanations to friends and skeptics abroad.

Looking Ahead: The Domestic US Political Factor
Undoubtedly, a respectful, normal relationship beyond profound differences would be better for both Cuba and the US. But this requires respect for what the Cuban Constitution says—a document that could perfectly serve as an initial guide for any normalization of ties.

While "dreams come true," dealing with Mr. Rubio's presence in high decision-making positions continues, accompanied and articulated with renewed enthusiasm by the political mafia of South Florida, some with seats in Congress. A change in this correlation of forces in a key electoral state like Florida could facilitate the predominance of sense and even the decline of that mafia. The upcoming November parliamentary elections may be an opportunity.

One final recommendation: do not forget to send Mr. Rubio to the dumpster—someone who has been discarded as a future US president, with jokes about him occupying a similar position in Havana. The joke explains itself.

Translated by Sergio A. Paneque Díaz / CubaSí Translation Staff