Four possible scenarios in Spain’s elections

Four possible scenarios in Spain’s elections
Fecha de publicación: 
23 July 2023
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Spain moves into quicksand, with four possible scenarios in the general elections that seem to lean to the right, although with a slight margin for surprises.


According to the National Statistics Institute (INE), 37,466,432 citizens are illegible to vote this Sunday to elect the new Parliament. Of these, around 2,6 million people already voted by mail, an all-time record.

Four organizations are the main key players of the elections, the ruling Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE), the conservative Popular Party (PP), the left wing movement Sumar and the far-right Vox.

According to analysts in the days prior to the elections, since they were called on May 29th, the PP has a chance to win, but without enough seats to govern by itself. It is estimated that it would get from 152 to 156 seats, therefore, it would need Vox (with about 24) to make up a coalition government.

It is required by law 176 seats to reach the Moncloa Palace, a desire that Feijóo has insistently claimed to avoid having at his side an uncomfortable partner, Vox, which rejects policies on climate change, gender violence, mistreatment of women, LGBTI groups and the UN 2030 agenda, among other controversial issues.

The third scenario would suppose a triumph of the PSOE, with about 145 seats and would make use of an alliance with Sumar to reach the needed 176 seats, assuming that Yolanda Díaz’s movement would win at least 31.


However, as catastrophism is part of the current political narrative, an electoral tsunami cannot be ruled out either, i.e. that no party achieves an absolute majority and the elections will have to be repeated, leaving the current Executive in office.

Spaniards were called to the polls in December 2015, June 2016 and April 2019 for different reasons, in one case the green light was given to the investiture of Mariano Rajoy, after two attempts, and in the other, finally Pedro Sánchez made it, after governing eight months and then, the five years that now ends.

According to Feijóo, Sánchez’s wish is that no organization gets the required seats to accede to the Moncloa. A repetition of the elections would give him oxygen to recover from the bad results in the municipal and autonomic elections of May 28.

In any case, this projection is not very feasible at this moment in view of the sustained rise of the PP and the strengthening of Vox, with all its neo-fascist postulates.

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