Cuba : Covid-19 bleak forecasts can only be changed if every citizen complies with sanitary protocols

In Cuba, short and medium-term forecasts on the behavior of COVID-19 continue to be bleak. The math is irrefutable as long as the "human behavior" variable is out of the equation.

Doctor of Science Raul Guinovart Diaz, dean of the Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science of the University of Havana, acknowledged this forecasts might change if, together with the increase in vaccination, each Cuban complies with the measures of social isolation and physical distancing and the rest of the established hygienic-sanitary actions".

The specialist presented the forecasts on the pandemic in the days to come in the usual weekly meeting of the country's leadership with scientists and experts who participate in the activities of science and technological innovation in the confrontation to the new coronavirus.

Guinovart explained that for the country, in the short term, "it is predicted to maintain a high incidence of cases, above 8,000. This model reiterates -he added- that we are in a peak area of confirmed cases, and in the coming weeks, the number of confirmed cases and deaths will continue to be very high".

According to an analysis in which the experts are adjusting the behavior to an average scenario where more complex situations may arise, it is estimated that the daily confirmed cases could remain above 7,500 on August 30 due to the incidence of the epidemic in some provinces.

Pinar del Río, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spíritus, Holguín, Camagüey, Mayabeque, Villa Clara and Las Tunas were classified as territories where an acceleration of cases is reported.